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NOSANANetwork Telemetry
SYS.TIME — · UPD —
> executing telemetry.sh … booting
Network signal · fundamentals
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GPU compute hours, latest vs Oct-25 peak
Market signal · price
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NOS vs all-time high
Divergence watch
Network — · price —.
Thesis confirms when network re-accelerates & market follows
Qué hacer con esto · hoyCARGANDO
Si ya tenés NOS
›Reducí en rallies a 0.29–0.31. No vendas el pánico, vendé la euforia.
›Stop mental: cierre diario bajo 0.254 (trendline) = bajar otro tramo.
›Lo que te devuelve a HOLD: cierre > 0.3125 con volumen ≥2× promedio.
›Si estás staked 181–365d: ya pagaste el costo. No rompas el lock por el chart.
Si querés entrar
›Todavía no. El triángulo resuelve en semanas (apex ~18 sept). Comprar adentro es pagar por incertidumbre.
›Zona de watchlist: 0.19–0.22 con volumen de capitulación, o retest exitoso del 0.143.
›Entrada por fuerza: cierre > 0.3125 y retest de la EMA200 que aguante. Entrás más caro, pero con confirmación.
›Sizing: 25% de la posición objetivo por trigger. Nunca full size en un alt de $28M.
Lo que cambia la tesis
›Revenue pagado publicado — el único dato que convierte esto en inversión y no en trade. Hoy: no existe.
›Compute hours volviendo sobre 150k/mes (hoy ~114k). Mientras cae, la red no valida el precio.
›Stake activo cayendo o ballenas deshaciendo → acelerar salida.
›Tesorería moviéndose a exchanges = salir.
Niveles y triggers se recalculan con el precio vivo. Marco y sizing son del research de 10AMPRO, no consejo de inversión.más tesis en 10am.pro →
Core data points
NOS Price
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Market Cap
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baseline
Completed Jobs
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baseline
Total Job Hours
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baseline
Online GPU Hosts
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baseline
Running / Queued
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— queued
Network evolution — is real usage growing?
GPU Compute Hours
Monthly throughput — leading indicator of paid demand vs incentives
00111loading series…
Market context — price & market cap (CoinGecko)
NOS Price
USD
$-0.08$0.21$0.50$0.79$1.08loading series…
Market Cap
USD · fully circulating (~100M NOS)
$-0M$0M$0M$0M$0Mloading series…
Supply overhang — who has to sell · on-chain (Solana) · live
scanning staking program + top holders…
Relativo y posicionamiento — ¿se mueve solo o sigue a SOL? · beta · dominancia · funding
computing relative performance…
Technical analysis — NOS/USDT 1D · forecast 1M / 3M / 1Y · read 27 Ago 2026
Rejected at the EMA200 (0.2946) today — wick to 0.312, close −4.6%. EMA200 falling for 10 months; lower highs 0.49 → 0.40 → 0.31 on shrinking volume = distribution. Higher lows since Feb (0.143 → 0.20 → 0.21) are the only bull argument and they are weak: the Aug rally reached the EMA200 on 166K volume. Off-chart: hosts −14% in 3 weeks, compute hours −50% vs peak. Triangle compressing while the network empties — that rarely resolves up.
Trend now · live
computing…
FORECAST INTACT ‹ $0.3125
Regime is recomputed on every load from 365 daily closes (CoinGecko): EMA 20/50/200, MACD (12,26,9), RSI 14. The forecast below is the 27 Ago 2026 read; this strip tells you whether the market is still agreeing with it.
STRUCTURE · SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE (CONTRACTING)╌ lower highs╌ higher lows┆ apex365d daily closes · log scale · volume at base
loading structure…
Pattern read
Symmetrical triangle, 6 months old, 3 touches each side. Lower highs H1→H3 (0.395 → 0.314 → 0.296) against higher lows L1→L3 (0.178 → 0.200 → 0.243). Price is now in the final third of the pattern — the zone where breakouts are statistically valid; past the apex the pattern decays. Height at the widest point ≈ 0.19, so the measured move is 0.50 on a breakout and the 0.143 cycle low on a breakdown (the literal 0.19 projection overshoots where liquidity exists).
Context is the tell. The triangle formed after an 85% decline from the Sep-25 blow-off (1.01). Continuation patterns resolve in the direction of the prior trend ~2:1. The EMA200 is above price and falling; the 50 sits below the 200. That is a bear-market consolidation, not a base.
What to watch this week
Volume. Loading… A valid break needs ≥2× average volume on the break day; anything less is a fake-out and gets sold.
Sequence that confirms the bear path: close below EMA20 (0.267) → lose the rising support line (currently ~0.254) → retest from below fails → 0.22 Aug low goes. Each step is a reduce point.
Sequence that flips it: daily close > 0.3125 on volume → EMA200 becomes support on the retest → 0.35. Only then does 0.40–0.50 open. Until that prints, rallies into 0.29–0.31 are for selling, not buying.
Decisión
› Con posición: vender 0.29–0.31, no esperar 0.35.
› Sin posición: esperar la resolución. Comprar dentro del triángulo es la peor relación riesgo/retorno del año.
› Trigger único que cambia todo: cierre diario > 0.3125 con 2× volumen. Si no pasa, el sesgo sigue bajista.
BIAS: BEARISH▬ forecast path╌ invalidationlog scale · x = √time · shade = tolerance
$0.10$0.15$0.20$0.25$0.30$0.40$0.50HOY+1M+3M+1YINVALIDATION › $0.3125 · path flips to 0.35–0.400.3500.4000.4900.2200.2000.1430.110$0.280$0.25-11%$0.19-32%$0.14-50%
+1M$0.25
EMA200 rejection → back to the 0.267 cluster → loses it as MACD crosses negative → 0.24–0.25.
+3M$0.19
Breaks the triangle lower rail (0.22) → Apr base 0.20 gives → 0.18–0.19. Window: post-Solana Summit with no revenue news.
+1Y$0.14
Retest of the 0.143 cycle low. No paid demand = likely undercut to 0.11–0.12.
INVALIDATION · Daily close > 0.3125 (above today's wick and the EMA200) on >2× avg volume kills this path → next target 0.35–0.40.
Resistance
$0.2946EMA200 — the line that turns the trend
$0.31INVALIDATION — Aug-22 wick
$0.35Jun range floor / May-Jun supply
$0.40Jun distribution top
$0.49Jun spike high
Support
$0.2670EMA 20/50 cluster
$0.2200Aug low · triangle lower rail
$0.2000Apr base
$0.1430Feb-26 cycle low
$0.1100undercut zone
Directional TA forecast with an explicit invalidation level. % shown is distance from live price. Refreshed manually on each thesis review. Not investment advice.
Tracked snapshots — accumulates every visit → your own history
Data-point log · auto-saved in this browser (max 1 per 6h). Deltas above are vs the previous row.
No snapshots yet — this is your first read. Revisit to build the trend.
Thesis tripwires — materialization checklist (from due-diligence) · last review 27 Ago 2026 · stance: hold-to-reduce
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Compute hours vs peak
Switch the chart to COMPUTE HRS · ALL to read recovery vs the ~220k Oct-25 peak.
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Host count
— online hosts. Track durable growth above the ~965 Aug-1 baseline.
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Paid revenue disclosure
No published USDC/USD paid-compute revenue yet. THE decisive signal — watch for a paid-vs-incentivized split.
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Staked NOS stabilizing
Staking fell ~29.7M → ~14M NOS; APR cut ~20%→~4% (NNP-0001). Watch for it to stop bleeding.
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Roadmap ships (SSH · confidential compute · Sombrero billing)
Q3/Q4 2026 promises + Sombrero fiat ramps/billing (H2-26) + AMD/Intel/Apple hardware. Confirm they ship, not slip — the $SHDW failure mode is perpetual "upcoming".
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Newsflow silence
No protocol updates or disclosures in the last 30d (Messari, mid-Aug). Next public touchpoint: Solana Summit Belgrade, 26 Ago. Silence + falling throughput = the pattern not to rationalize.
Sources. Network data via server-side proxy to the Nosana API (dashboard.k8s.prd.nos.ci — same backend as explore.nosana.com). Market data: CoinGecko.
Green = network fundamentals · blue = market. The dashboard's job is to show whether the two converge. The network-evolution chart is native historical series; point-in-time KPIs are snapshotted per visit.
Cómo leer los tripwires. ✓ = la tesis se confirma en ese eje · ! = se rompe · ◦ = sin datos concluyentes. Regla de 10AMPRO: dos "!" simultáneos en compute hours y hosts = reducir sin esperar el chart; revenue pagado publicado = subir la posición aunque el chart esté feo.
Note. Completed jobs / compute hours include incentivized, grant and charity (Folding@Home) activity — not a clean paid-revenue signal. Watch the tripwires for real materialization. Data & research context, not investment advice.
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